The United States and Iran each said this week that the next move belongs to the other. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there is no need for major combat operations against Iran.^[1] Iran's top negotiator said the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status.^[2] While they spoke, Iran's army said an oil tanker struck a mine and caught fire in the strait.^[3] Read together, reports from seven outlets describe a war that neither government is escalating and neither is ending. The fighting has narrowed to one stretch of water, and the cost is being paid there. What Washington says Rubio spoke after a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Paris.^[4] He rested his position on the effect of economic pressure on Iran.^[5] He said Iranian oil supplies are drying up because of American blockades.^[6] The United States has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.^[7] Donald Trump has concluded that there is no need for major combat operations for now.^[8] He said the war remains at the status quo.^[9] He also said there was momentum toward ending it.^[10] The restraint came with a threat. Rubio warned that Iran would pay a terrible price if it crosses red lines.^[11] He said Iran is not currently serious about the terms of a negotiation.^[12] What Tehran says Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is the speaker of Iran's parliament and its top negotiator.^[13] Iran sent seven conditions for peace to the United States through a Qatari mediator.^[14] They include lifting the American blockade and sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian funds, ending all fighting and announcing an end to the war.^[15] Iran is waiting for an official American response.^[16] Not every voice in Tehran describes a negotiation. Iran denied that it was in talks with the United States.^[17] Mohsen Rezaei called for the United States to surrender the war.^[18] Set side by side, the two positions do not meet. Washington says Iran's terms are not serious. Tehran says its terms are on the table and unanswered. Each describes itself as the one waiting. Who controls the strait Both governments claim it. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz.^[19] U.S. Central Command has escorted ships through it.^[20] Iran targets ships that transit the strait without its authorisation.^[21] Ghalibaf said the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does not apply there.^[22] Iran and Oman reached an understanding to oversee the strait.^[23] The strait normally carries about one fifth of the world's oil.^[24] The ships The week's record on the water is this. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said three oil tankers caught fire in Hormuz on Tuesday.^[25] Iran claimed two ships were hit by explosions in the strait.^[26] A Liberia-flagged tanker carrying Indian seafarers was hit by a projectile in the Gulf.^[27] Four members of its crew were injured.^[28] Attacks on ships in Hormuz continued through the week.^[29] The price Oil moved with each report. Brent crude briefly dropped below 90 dollars a barrel.^[30] On Wednesday morning it rose 0.2% to $91.71.^[31] The American benchmark gained 0.1% to $86.12.^[32] Later, Brent rose more than 3% to above $94.^[33] Those four readings span about five dollars in two days, on no change in the military position. Some supply has come back. Saudi output neared its pre-war level.^[34] Average gasoline prices in the United States may soon drop below four dollars a gallon.^[35] The war beside the war The conflict has edges beyond the strait. The Houthis confirmed targeting Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline near Riyadh.^[36] Saudi air defenses intercepted a Houthi missile over the capital.^[37] On land, U.S. Central Command launched Task Force Iron Gate to disrupt Iran's weapons supply routes.^[38] Adm. Brad Cooper ordered its creation.^[39] It has roughly 20 personnel, based in Tampa, Florida.^[40] It will target Iran's land borders and shipping routes on the Caspian Sea.^[41] Iran and Russia discussed how to get around it.^[42] The allies Europe's members of the G7 pressed Rubio to avoid a new escalation.^[43] France's foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, warned that the risk of escalation between the United States and Iran is not ruled out.^[44] Britain's Ed Miliband called for a full diplomatic effort to end the conflict.^[45] Qatar's prime minister joined talks on Iran on the sidelines in Paris.^[46] American officials asked Vladimir Putin to mediate direct negotiations with Iran.^[47] The politics at home The war has already cost the president's party. It contributed to Republican losses in the 2026 midterm elections.^[48] About six in ten voters said the United States made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran.^[49] Vice President JD Vance publicly blamed the war for the losses.^[50] Trump is now weighing his next moves.^[51] He has expressed hope for a peace deal.^[52] What comes next The next fixed point is an American answer to Iran's seven conditions, which Tehran says it has not received. Until one comes, the position is the one both sides described this week: no major combat operations, a blockade in place, and ships under fire in a strait that two governments each say they control.